High Stakes Poker and how Vanessa Selbst needs to profile better.

Phil Ruffin limps in from UTG. Player is a filthy rich billionaire, but not from playing poker. He has pocket 33s, one of the typical hands an inexperienced player would limp in with. Doyle Brunson raises from the cut-off and is probably trying to get heads-up with Ruffin to outplay him after the flop.

However, Vanessa Selbst from the button flat calls with QQ. Wow, I think that's a mistake there as A) she likely has the best hand, B) lays an invitation for Doyle to outplay her after the flop, C) gets ZERO information from Ruffin and Brunson, and D) serves up wonderful odds for the blinds to play this hand as well. That means QQ becomes an instant dog to the field.

Esfandiari calls from the big blind so the pot is now over $20,000 already. The flop is 4c9c3d. So get this: Antonio flops top pair, Doyle flops a gut-shot, Ruffin has a set, and Vanessa still has an over pair with the QQ. Oh my. She was asking for trouble, and that's exactly what she got.

Esfandiari hit top pair, and although there are four players in this flop a bet here seems a reasonable risk, so that is what he does. He bets $17,100 and rather quickly gets called by rookie Ruffin. (Lets see.. he limped, then calls a raise preflop, now he calls a big bet post flop. Hmmm... Geee... lemme think..) The pot is now like $55,000 and Doyld drops his gut shot. Then it is to Vanessa who raises to $63,800 making the pot $118,000. Now this is actually a solid raise here because now she will find out who has a hand - although I think this is a slight over-bet.

This is funny now, because before Antonio could even assess what is happening here Ruffin starts to make a BIG raise - OUT OF TURN!!!! OMG. The rookie could not wait to get his money in and lost his order at the table. Esfandiari is watching this happening, not saying a word.. LOL. There is another new player at the table sitting next to Anthony looking at him wondering what is happening. Gotta love filthy rich men at this table.

How can billionaires make so much money in real life and act out of turn in a $100,000 pot? I think Ruffin should outsource his poker playing activities from now on.

So Antonio does fold of course and Ruffin gets a $100,000 raise in there making the pot $218,000. Vanessa verbally prods Ruffin for information. You got a good hand? Do you like your hand? He giggles like a little boy who can't hide the fact he has a zipper-pressing hard-on for the pot right now.

I think it's safe to assume this player is going to be mousy, or tight aggressive such as this profile here. (1). VPIP = 12% (2), PFR = 8% (3), with a zero aggression factor (4). That's tight. I think this profile suits Ruffin quite well. And don't forget, we have some rather obvious live tells in this hand as well. If you had your opponent profiled this with some serious money on the table...  what would you do?

Even the new host of HSP, Norm McDonald recognized that she could only be ahead of TT or JJ here and he wonders out loud what could she be thinking. Even a mouse is likely to raise with TT or JJ preflop, and we KNOW that Ruffin limped UTG to start the hand. So that leaves... 88, 77, 66, 55 and/or a flush/straight draw. Now with ANY of those hands does this guy get all crazy with this flop? Look at those stats again. Even if he was on some kind of draw like holding 6c5c, I think this guy calls instead of reraises. In fact, that is about the only hand that Vanessa could be ahead of here, and the UTG limp kind of makes that unlikely as well. Got to be a set of 444 or 333.

This live hand is a prime example of why you not only need to have profiling poker software when playing online, but also pay attention to it. So may times when I have made a big mistake, I look back at the hand and the profiling data I have on my Tournament Indicator. I usually say to myself, You stupid mother fucker. So God damned obvious.

Ruffin rakes in a pot of $475,00. Vanessa says to Ruffin, "You played it well". Are you fucking kidding me? He played like a teenager on the night he first got his whistle wet, but Vanessa played it even worse, if that is possible. Honeslty this a like one of those hands you see in the $3 Knock Out tournaments at Full Tilt Poker. When you get to see this video, look closely at the faces of the other guys at the table Viffer, Antonio, Doyle, and Greenstein. They are all thinking "Vanessa, please, please rebuy."