The Odds of winning big with connectors.

Phil Hellmuth almost loses his mind after this hand which preflop had him as a huge favorite. However both hands are marginal, and even though Bryan played loose, the thing with connectors is that they can turn into big pots. You always have to be aware of your opponent's stack and his propensity to dump it to you if things go good for you in this hand. The thing with Hellmuth is that he rarely lets his stack ride in marginal situations so this doesn't bode well as a long term strategy for Bryan either. he really got lucky here on the river, and then made an additional error in betting.

In that sense you have be very wary of the implied odds potential becuase against the wrong player, it's easy to misinterpret that strategy altogether. The result of which can put in in hands, in poor situations consistently because of the lack of payoff. When I am looking at my poker calculator, its not just the odds display, but your opponents profile and stack as well which can reinforce my decision, or hinder it.

WOW!  Bryan raises this up with connectors 67o AND out of position.  I can only think he is setting up a move to steal a fat pot post flop with Raymer’s “First In” plan of attack on this hand.  Hellmuth reraises with his pp.  Now, for some reason Brandon makes the call.  He represented a hand and is continuing with his ploy making the call.

The flop has over cards and since his raise was called Hellmuth checks.  Bryan obviously senses weakness and makes a 16k bet but Phil calls quickly.  Phil only has a backdoor straight draw as he can’t possibly think Bryan is in her with bottom pair. (You can view a straight draw in the drawing grid on your poker odds calculator). The turn is a 5 which helps neither at this point.  Phil quickly checks and Bryan goes for chips but then thinks and checks.  This is a “fake tell” that can be pulled off live letting your opponent think you want to bet but check maybe worried about a kicker or presenting paired middle pair or a pp like TT here.

I think Bryan was ready to pull the trigger and try for the on orphan pot on the turn.  But then he thought better of it the way Phil was acting.  Represent a hand preflop, but call the raise as if you have a strong draw.  Continue the ploy with cBet the flop, then pounce on the turn depending on the texture of the board.  If the board looked like it connected some hand on that turn card Bryan could bet out and Phil would have to fold the better hand.  But the turn was a brick and now the board don’t lend itself to fulfill Bryan’s move here so instead he checks.

The river is a miracle for Bryan and he trips his 7.  Phil bets a very small 2500 into a 50,000 pot!  He even announces what he thinks Bryan has.  If Bryan has over cards and paired the Q or J he is most likely going to have to raise that bet.  Phil is representing he hit with that 7 and isn’t afraid of any over card.  Fact is, if Bryan raises, Phil will have to fold.  It’s all a bluff play that started with Bryan setting up a steal and ending up with Bryan actually sucking out the winner and Phil is bluffing at the pot.

For whatever reason Bryan just called the bet.  Perhaps he was thinking Phil had JJ or 55 in which case Phil boated to his trips.  Phil’s bet was small to trap him into a reraise and committing chips Bryan must have thought.  Had he raised, Phil would have folded.  However, Bryan wins anyway and it’s fun to see Phil’s reaction and double take.

The moral here is, you can setup a bluff well in advance AND you can pull it off with any two cards from any seat.  But it really helps when you get lucky and your bluff actually HITS!