ICM and Profiling Balance

Pertinent forum discussion regarding profiling tactics and ICM: So Raz, being the resident SNG pro here, is this entirely a bad run, or do you have (tilting) mistakes in there which exacerbate the situation? I have seen these kind of swings in Moshman (and the like) players as well, and I think it's just the nature of that push and re-shove strategy that leaves players vulnerable to this.

At these levels you are also running into a lot of players that play, well, exactly like you do - so is your advantage significant enough to avoid these swings? I am guessing not. I am interested in seeing some of those hands where you were eliminated, and you may have thought to yourself (immediately after) - "Well, maybe that was a bad move."



Not if you are concerned about streaks, I bet Raz, or anyone else can turn around a streak by playing only 2 tables by combining ICM and profiling. I feel the same way, my read was I was crushed and my inclination was to fold. I changed my mind when I saw I didn't have a solid history, just a glimpse of a couple rounds. I saw the stack size wouldn't kill me and I could continue on without much hindrance if I was wrong.

I am losing a game now and then with a call like this preflop when my first inclination was to fold and talk myself out of it not wanting to fold JJ-QQ pre. The more I look at this the more I think it was a wrong call and my read was the way to go regardless the situation and numbers.

I think it'd be pretty naive to explain it all away as just running bad because a little or as much as you think about it - losing 12 coin flips in a row (4000 to 1 shot btw) is invariably going affect you in some way or another.

Unfortunately its just a reality of the game that the most +$EV style of SNG play is also the style that lends itself to some of the highest variance. Hence why bankroll management is so important.

At the moment I'm just playing the $20 games and most of that $1k downswing is actually from the $20 games. There aren't really many players there that play the way that I do and there are really only one or two whose ICM knowledge isn't considerably leaky.

Whether your opponents are competent players or not - that doesn't change whether or not the guy wakes up with AK when you're shoving KQ from the button. If other players are making good calls against you and exploiting your ranges then that would lower your base ROI, not really lead to an increase in variance because a good player adjusts their ranges depending on the opponent.

There are definitely games where you bust and you question whether you made the right move or not, but that's what ICM calculators are for an during bad runs I definitely increase the time that I spend studying hands and various forums. I don't think that anyone can deny that this kind of downswing knocks their confidence, but its a reality of the game and everyone has to find the best way of dealing with it.

For me its increasing study time and moving down a level. I can't see me playing at the $50 games much if at all this week, just steadying the ship again at the $20s. Luckily I'm not the kind of person to chase losses and keep playing when I'm running bad. Strings of outdraws/coolers just demotivate me to play so I don't ever really go on tilt and play bad because I don't give myself the chance to.

'Regulars' I'll admit is a pretty loose term. There are regs that are losing players but really you only have to adjust to the thinking regulars. There are only two that I'm aware of so that isn't really a big issue.

Adjusting your play against regulars is very important but there is more than one level of thinking here. If I'm against another regular who knows ICM then he knows that I'm going to be shoving a wide range of hands. Therefore he can exploit that by calling with wider ranges.

Really I can't say that I've seen that at all in 2400 games on ipoker.

However I do know exactly how to compensate for this and that is to shove tighter into regs. If I start shoving tighter and they are still calling loose, they're literally shredding money. Calling too wide is a major major leak.

Of course they could then start calling tighter, but then they become just like the unknown players and I can shove super wide into them, and the cycle continues. However for the cycle to start it needs the other regs to adjust to my play and at the moment I haven't been hero called by Q9o in situations where players knowledgeable about ICM should know that I'm shoving any 2. Until that happens I can keep shoving wide and exploiting the regulars which is where the money is in the long run when 1 or 2 other guys in the SNG is in every game with you.