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Only 3 players remain at the final table of the Five Diamond World Poker Tour Classic including Doyle Brunson and Patrick Antonius involved with this huge hand. The big blinds are 150,000 and 300,000 with 30,000 antes. The button folds (Rehne Pederson - 2nd in chips) to Doyle in the small blind (shortstack but over half chip leader stack) who has 33 and limps into the pot.
Patrick looks down at A2o and figures with Doyle just limping, in he must be ahead - and chooses to continue his aggression at this final table. Any kind of draw would raise to steal here so Patrick decides to push all in. Surprisingly, Doyle quickly calls it. From the discussion of the announcers we know that Patrick has been very aggressive bullying and stealing which inspired Doyle Brunsons to stand fast this time. These pocket 3's are quite possibly the best hand he’s had for some rounds. ICM would have it that a J7 or Q6 would be a good push hand so for Doyle to make the call with “underpair” of 33 as he must believe he has to be putting Patrick on just that, some weak overcards.
Technically this is not a great call by Doyle, as a push by him would have been better. But now however, he ends up a 2-1 favorite pre-flop because Patrick only has one overcard. If Antonius had a better kicker as would be expected of someone making such an all in move, then Doyle is hoping to survive a coin flip situation.
As a big stack, Patrick’s all in shove isn’t really all in. However, Brunson has enough to cause some serious damage to Patrick's stack. This hand wreaks more of a home game sit and go than it does a million dollar first place tournament prize. Patrick is risking over half his stack if he’s called, so he likely have been better off raising and folding to a shove than to be the aggressor with a weak ace in this instance. In addition, because of his chip lead, he didn’t need to take a risk like this. Sure, bully and steal but make them get out or come to him when he has some real strength. Doyle's limp could also have been a trap for an aggressive player.
Seemingly Antonius thought Brunson would fold, but when you have been bullying so much, you have to be prepared for your opponent pushing back sooner or later. It's gamble time, and A2o isn't going to be a significant favorite over anything. A big stack has to be aware anyone shorter that wants to double up, is going to come knocking and gamble - hoping to get lucky. I think both players here made made mistakes preflop. Patrick also may not have heard Doyle say time and again in interviews and also written in his book that he is willing to “gamble” in the right situations and this was clearly one such situation.
The turn pairs the board which triples Patrick’s outs while doing little to help Doyle. But with only one card to go, the gap does widen to nealry 4 to 1 odds. Patrick has 9 outs now because if the board has 2 pair or an Ace hits his Ace will give him the highest hand possible.
The river is a 9 which boats Doyle and makes him the new chip leader by an even wider margin than Antonius had - the loss knocks Patrick into last place. One hand can completely reverse a game and win or lose that game. It is imperative to play perfect at all times and make the right plays with the right odds to back it up. Doyle took a big risk making a call and only because Patrick made a mistake shoving with such a weak hand was he able to dominate throughout the hand.
This hand boiled down to luck and personal feelings. It wasn’t played from a math standpoint. It wasn’t played from stack standpoint. It wasn’t played from position. It was the big stack bullying incessantly and the opponent getting tired of it and making a stand. It was the final table and only three left.
Obviously it is at the end of a long tournament, players are tired and the prize money is substantial already. It’s easy to say to one self, "I already have a lock on a big paycheck, may as well get it all in now and see if I get lucky". By the same token the big stack can be getting tired and figure even if he does get called he’s ahead with an Ace and normally in a 3-way table heads-up it’s going to be ahead more often than not. If that is the read and scenario, then it was the end stage high blind ICM play being pushed to the max and both players knew it might be a flip and were willing to race for the $8 million prize. Except here, you can hear the disappointment in Antonius voice as he repeats incredulously at the end of the hand how could Doyle make such a call. Clearly he didn’t expect a race by such a weak hand calling. He figured Doyle would fold. Doyle pointed out quite appropriately, “We ain’t playing solitaire”. Many players seem to forget that it’s not just about them and their great cards. There is an opponent and a dealer. Anything can happen so don’t be surprised if you are willing to push all in on a draw, and you get called by a weak pair or draw. It takes two (or more) and you are GOING to get called so choose your spots to shove wisely no matter what the stakes. |
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