Matusow and Cunningham - What are the odds?

Here are a couple of well known professionals using odds to make judgment plays in a sit and go tournament. In the interview after this hand, Matusow talks about he is the unluckiest poker player and how he is ahead all the time but still getting beaten.  Eventually it will turn he says.  He’s right, eventually everyone will have the same “luck” whether it is good or bad.  But really, did he bust out because he was unlucky and outdrawn?  Let’s look at this hand in depth.

 

Mike is on the button, short stack, no fold equity, end stage play, only 5 players left.  BB is 300, Mike has a weak marginal draw hand off suited connectors JT.  Mike has position and wastes it by limping in.  He has NO info about the strength of his opponent.  He went in weak and signaled with the limp he wants to see a cheap flop.  He didn’t raise fearing a reraised.  If it is not worth a raise it is not worth a bet in this situation.  Mike should be looking for a hand to push or fold with not limp in.  Then compound it later by calling a raise.  If your intention is to call a raise then when you have position MAKE the raise.  Put the decision on your opponent.  Now Mike is short, he is upset about some bad plays he made earlier that cost him and he is trying to play safe, see a cheap flop and then get aggressive.  He’s trying to play small ball style without the stack behind him to do so.  He has about 6,000 or so in chips so 20bbs, he don’t have to push yet.  He can go a couple more rounds and get better than this low group JTo hand.  He could make a steal attempt at which point he might get called OR pushed back and he can then make a decision what to do.  Limping in here was not the right course of action.

Now then Allen had 99 in the SB and he raises it to 1550 or 5x the bb.  He is putting the pressure on the bb and mike to get out the way.  There are no odds to call this bet with any draw hand.  There was 450 in there from the blinds plus Mikes 300 limp in for a total of 1050.  Raising it to 1550 makes a pot of 2600 and Mike has to put in 1250 more so only about 2 to 1 with a weak hand.  He should have folded OR reraised shoved.  The re-raised shove says I slow played a big pair and got you.  Allen would probably fold 99.  ON the other hand, Mike has a BIG problem.  He is short stack so he has little fold equity.  You simply cannot make the same plays and moves as a short stack that will work if you have a bigger stack behind.  You have no teeth and it’s all bark.  Mike could easily have folded and followed the adage “Beware a big raise for from the SB”.

Mike makes the call and we go to the flop which is J high rags giving Mike top pair.  Pot is 2400 and Allen bets out 1500 into it.  NOW Mike pushes all in for 4500 making the pot 8400 and only 3100 more for Allen to call getting about 2.75 to 1 odds to call.  Mike has nothing left and can’t hurt Allen.  Allen on the other hand might take Mike out and free up more prize money for Allen.  He only has 2 outs and not good odds to hit a set but he thinks back on how the hand played out, Mike has no AJ and no JJ or he would have put more in preflop.  He must put Mike on overcards or a pp and he is willing to race for these odds.  Allen catches one of his 2 outs and puts Mike out.

Unfortunate for Mike yes.  He got his money in ahead, yes.  He was the favorite to win yes.  But there are still two cards to come.  He has a weak kicker.  He shouldn’t have even been in this hand and he wouldn’t have been in this spot to put it all in on a weak hand even though it is top pair.  It is not very “top.”

I too feel like that on a bad run, that I am just unlucky, that I got it in ahead.  But did I really play it right to begin with?  I spend time to review and analyze if I did the right thing or not.  If I did, so be it, if I didn’t then I need to plug that leak in my game.  We can see where Mike made the error and that was at the onset of limping in from the button.  He made it worse calling the reraised preflop.  Hind sight is perfect just like Monday Morning Quarterbacking.  But that is the beauty of this in that we CAN pick apart a hand and see where mistakes may lay hidden and avoid them in the future.  You won’t catch me limping into a pot with a JTo ever.  It’s raised or folded.