Playing the odds with Middle pairs. - odds with middle pairs 3

That's a good question Jumping and relates to what Marty said about PPs often being difficult to play after the flop.

Ideally you would prefer to be OOP after the flop for this play, so that when you shove the flop, you are shoving not calling. That won't always be the case. This is especially so when you are raising something like 33 which will be from LP and the most likely callers will be from the blinds.

It think if you start this play pre flop, you have to be prepared to finish it, which means you will have to call that all-in bet post flop. There are a couple of reasons for this.

Firstly, when you have an Orange M AND you are fairly short stacked compared to the table and/or the pre-flop caller, then you are an obvious vulnerable stack. Most players know that slow playing works best against short stacks and big stacks. Pre flop with an M of 8 you will mostly fit the medium stack category. After you raise half your stack your are then getting pretty close to a short stack after the flop.

Accordingly, there is a higher than normal chance that TPTK will slow play against you rather than shove.

Technically, bluffing works best against a medium stack and after you have invested half your stack you should be viewed as a poor candidate to be bluffed. However, because you started as a medium stack, lots of times, big stack and short stack players will call your raise when they are OOP, with a predetermined view to running a stop and go, themselves committing to shove any flop. Big stack players do this because its does not hurt them that much if you call them and you double up. Short stack players do this because they are deparate and have to be making moves.

So to summarise, there are two factors at work which make the all-in after the flop (that you are being asked to call) not necessarily represent a strong a hand as otherwise might be the case. 1. is that a hand that hit the flop hard will very often slow play because of your stack size, rather than shove and 2 is position which makes a stop and go bluff by the OOP player more likely.

These factors, together with the fact that you really are pot committed anyway, mean that one you start the play, you pretty much have to finish it and call. Yes you will look foolish quite often and you would definitely prefer to be shoving than calling. But I really can't see that you have the option to fold.

What the above highlights, is that the play should not be an automatic option every time you are orange M and pick up a reasonably PP for your position. You have to be aware that by starting the play, you are committing your tournament life to it.

I have said in previous posts that M is a somewhat fluid concept and the value of an Orange M as an expression of your tournament equity can change significantly depending on your standing in the tournament.

The purpose of this play is to gain maximum value from the combination of your hand and your stack size. It is not designed to destroy an otherwise good tournament position, where stacks, bubbles and other factors might suggest a fold is more appropriate.

-----

and preflop? i mean if i see someone raising half his/her stack i will never just call, unless i feel really in the mood to trap and hold kings, i guess. shouldn't you expect to be pushed all-in pre-flop still rather than get called?

and if that happens i suppose you just have to hold your breath and hope for a race?

------

Another good point. Quite often you do end up all-in pre flop. I have been playing this kind of a tactic for some time, but have not previously really investigated the varying EV from different stack and positions. However I would estimate that maybe a little over half the time you end up all-in pre flop anyway, and you obviously have to call.

When you don't end up all-in pre flop, it is normally against someone who have you out-stacked by a considerable margin and their pre flop call is something of a gamble that they can afford to make.

-------