Duplicate outs and the skill card.

So in this example it is 100/17.4 which equals 5.747 then subtract 1 and you come with 4.747 or in odds terms 4.75:1.

Now let's take an example where the Skill Card has a much higher chance of appearing on the river. Remember in hold'em that if two players go to the river, they normally have some kind of hand, which means that on many of these showdown confrontations, a lot of outs may overlap for both players. You are holding JcTc And your opponent is holding KcQc, the community cards are 9c8dAc and the Jh. Now you definitely have some outs here as you ponder shoving all-in. You feel any Ten, Seven, Queen or club will win, in case he calls you with presumably, top pair. But those outs are definitely overlapping as any club is going to make him a better flush and a Ten will make him the nut Broadway straight.

In this situation you are playing for him NOT to hit a card, because in fact you are a clear favorite here. Let's take a look at his "Skill Card" chances though as they are now more significant than you may have thought before he turned over his hole cards. There are 7 clubs left in the deck, 3 non-club Tens, and 3 Kings. Your poker software will tell you this immediately.

So let's say everything goes all in and turned up before the skill card shows. He then sees he actually has 13 outs, not the 18 he might have hoped for because 2 more clubs are gone and the 3 remaining queens will not help you, not him. Even so 13 help cards divided into 44 unseen cards left is a 29.55% chance of hitting. Now you might think that sounds good for you, and over the long term those are excellent odds. However, if you get into a huge pot or tournament situations where a lot is riding on this hand, his 30% can be a huge short term loser for you.

So in the end, beware the skill card and watch for duplicate outs by envisioning why your opponent is STILL in the hand and what kind of hand he could be holding that may very well be close to your hole cards too.