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Quick Odds Quiz

You have (1,700 chips) and are short stack with

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on the button in a single table sit and go. 5 players left top 3 pay. Blinds are 150/300. All other players have between 2,000 and 2,800 chips. Both players limp in before you. What are your odds to call and what is your best course of action in this hand?

Answer


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Johnny Tropic's Real Adventures with Poker Assist Software

More of the Poker Office Review @ Poker Office 2

Oh boy!  Like a kid at Christmas opening that first present is how I felt as I downloaded  the new Poker Office 2 program.  Saving it to my computer, a duo core 64 running Windows XP64, was a breeze.

The install using the defaults went smooth with all the components already automatically selected all I had to do was click next and followed any instructions it gave.  With the cable modem, it downloaded in a minute or so.  Install was just about as fast and was put to use instantly.

poker office

It wasn’t clear what to do when it was done installing.  It gave me the option to load hand histories or start “Live Tracker” (LT).  LT is the part of the program that will track your data as you play.  Since I wasn’t playing at the moment I clicked on load hand histories.  Took a second or two for me to locate the Full Tilt hand history folder but it was a snap to select all the files in it and click ok.  Please note, after setting it the first time, it remembers where it is, you just point and click each time.  PO2 imported them all seamlessly with no problems.  After this, I entered the registration key supplied, and following the instructions restarted the program.  (Yeah, guys, I actually followed the instructions and highly recommend you do the same J  )

Restarting the program, the default database was automatically loaded for me.  I didn’t see my hand info in it so I thought it didn’t work.  I imported again and it said they were all in the database already.  It repopulated.  Considering I’ve never used this and haven’t read any instructions yet as a typical guy manuever, I expect I don’t know what I’m doing yet LOL!  So I broke down and read the directions some more.

To use the LT feature, you have to have your poker client running.  There are about 20-30 game sites listed.  I’ll be using it on Full Tilt and Poker Stars.  For a full list of sites supported I’m sure you can check it out on their website.  All in all I had it downloaded, imported, running and useable in about 15 minutes tops.  First stop is the online manual to learn how to use it and make it work for me.  Depending on how much info is in your hand history folder, imports can take a while.  My first import was only the most recent game which is why it went so fast.  Once I found I only had one game loaded, I imported again from my archive folder and that took another 15 minutes to import 6,000+ hand histories.  Be patient and let it work and it’s just about foolproof!

First thing I did was check preferences and set it for load of tourney info as that is what I deal with mostly.  I was happy to see the defaults had everything already set right including figuring out which player was ME to load as the default player.  I thought that was pretty cool,  I like things that are easy.  The less I have to do, the less I can mess it up! J  They have made it very simple and user friendly.  I run XP64  and have found that the live tracker doesn’t work with it.  I believe this software will easily run on any Windows OS from 98 through to vista.  Vista has some 64 platform in it like the XP64.  I have heard of and experienced my own software problems that won’t work in the 64 bit platforms for some software and printers.  So make sure your operating system is compatible.  I was using all the other features on my x64 with awesome results.

The online manual is simple and easy to follow and understand.  Everything is covered from the simple getting started section to the in depth analysis settings and features that Poker Office 2 offers.  There is also the Overlay feature which when LT is running, updates player stats during the game.  It is fully customizable to put whatever you want to track right at your fingertips without having to change programs or windows in the program to see what you deem to be “key” stats.  I found and activated the automatic detection for LT so I won’t have to remember to start it up each time.  I also read it was important for large data bases to use the SQL database option instead of the default Java dBase.  From the online manual I found the instructions on making this change.  Read and follow all instructions to the letter!  The dBase transfer took another 10 or 15 minutes to complete but it was easy to follow the instructions.  If I can do it without messing it up, ANY one can!

Now we get to the really great features of the program and what makes it SO valuable a tool to have!  I thought I knew what hands to play and how to play them.  I thought I knew what was making me the most and losing me the most.  I thought I knew what I had to work on to improve my game.  BOY was I wrong!  Collecting, sorting and formatting ALL the data for 1,000’s of hands gives you some real cold hard facts that are undeniable.

poker office

All the statistical data of my every card and every move AND that of my opponents is stored in a database and offered up in an array of tables and tabs that are easily recognizable, understandable and sortable based on any filter or sort priorities you want.  Starting hands, bets made, won amounts per hand, checks and check raises, winning hands, position stats, you name it, it’s all here.  You can see which hand in which position makes the most or loses the most.  You can see at a glance how you did with slow play a hand like a boat for example, check raising it or just betting it outright and comparing which worked better for you.  You can quickly see which starting hands are losing the most and winning the most as well as positions.  It helps point out flaws in your game and perks that you can play more of the good and cut back on the bad.  In one case I found that while I win with QQ most of the time, the net winnings is lowest of the top winners.  So long term I lost more $$$ than won as a result.  This to me says I over bet them and was able to reign that in right away.

That data is also separated into cash games and tournament games so you can analyze BOTH without the data being mixed together.  Why is it important to know chip wins and not just cash?  Because to win the tournament you have to collect all the chips!  This program is a remarkable, in depth yet user friendly tool and a must have for the serious player.  If you would like to read more about the details of the program and how I implemented some of the features in my own analysis read on.

For data analysis of my imported games, it was very easy to sort, select and review a TON of information.  Sort by start hand and how many times I had it, win %, Tourney$ (T$) wins per hand, etc…  Couple clicks on the headers to sort the info shows my biggest T$ loser was 44 and my biggest winner was KK followed real close AND surprisingly in this order, AKo, JJ, AA, 98s, 99, JTo,QJo, Q6s, ATs, KQo, ATo and QQ.  From T$26,000 down to T$9,000.  I found it interesting to see which hands actually brought in the chips.  A lot of this information is also situational.  As it has to do with the opponents in the hand and the situation in that particular game as to how much was won.  Changing to Win% to see which hands win the MOST often but not necessarily the most chips I found the order of starting hands changed to KK, AA, JJ, ATs, AKo, QQ, AJs, TT, A6s, AKs, AT, KQs, 77, 99, AJo, AQo, AQs, 66 & 88.  AA & KK were the closest at 92.31% & 92.68% respectively.  All of them had T$ winnings except for AKs, AQo, & 88.  While I won with them 66.67%, 59.38% & 54.84% respectively, I had a net loss overall for them.  Notably, AKs was only a T$390 total loss in a total of 21 times it was dealt.  AQo lost almost T$12,000.  However, I know I lost a big tourney as big stack with AQo, flopped Arags, AJ beat me rivering a J.  That accounts for about T$8,000 lost in that one hand.  Still, it was a long term loser over 6,000 hands and AQo held 64 times and seeing the flop 59% of the time.

This brief first analysis tells me I’m overplaying AQo and 88 risking too much with them.  I am now alerted to monitor all the other factors in a hand more closely when playing either of these two because they are long term wins more than half the time.  It also told me I had a PFR of 74% with the 88 and only 58% with the AQo.

For hand analysis there are many more features, graphs and details that can be sorted and looked at.  I stuck with the basic defaults and picked out a flaw in my game within minutes.

Another tab brings up the position stats.  How often each seat played, T$ won/lost and it breaks it down in another table of starting hands per seat to sort below the seat stats!  I like this setup better than the other tracking program I have used because button is seat 0, SB is 1, BB is 2, therefore UTG is 3 etc…  The other program is numbered “FROM” the button counting backward not forward.  So I get confused easily with it.

With a couple clicks I can see 0, 4 & 3 are my most profitable positions played.  The blinds & cutoff were the biggest losers.  However, one point I have not found here yet is the allowance for forced blinds.  In the other program it shows total lost in the blinds and how much was actual forced blinds lost with the difference being wins or losses based on hands actually played from those seats.  However, you can read on further across the chart to see those taken to show down and figure from there.  Forced blinds you lose aren’t taken to showdown.  From the button, I see that my top 6 hands for T$ winning include from #1; JJ, 98s, KK, QJo, 76s & 99.  My biggest losers are A5o, 87s, 87o, K9o, K5o, A8o.  Note, I know the K5 was played once recently HU with big bets and abandoned post flop.  Hence the T$5,000 loss.  On the other hand, I’ve actually hit the flop with it once, took it to show down once and won with it that one time.  Needless to say, I know it’s not a good hand and can see in the numbers I’m not playing it.  I saw the flop twice, took it to show down once and won.  That’s what I mean when I say you can read across to the end of the chart and know what you take to the felt and what is dumped right off.

I wanted to see what I am doing with the “free flops” as in what happens to me in the BB.  I was surprised to see the some of the same top winning hands in the bb from #1 JJ to AKo, AJo, KQs, 98s, KK.  The big losers also surprised me, 66, 76s, 82o, 22, 64o, A3s, Q7o & 88.  So this tells me I get in trouble with a free flop, miss it and can’t fold or get piece and play it as second fiddle.  Small to middle pairs, suited & unsuited connectors and gapers.  As to the 82 off, I’ve had it 11 times, folded to any raise or bet, saw the flop 45% of the time, zero raises, zero calls, zero wins at show downs, 18% showdown with 100% loss.  Basically I get stuck with junk and check it down about 3 times to showdown.  But for me to lose T$4,400 with it, tells me I’ve been stuck with it often in end stages with bb that can run 1,200 or more.  So you have to understand your game, know what you do, remember anything recent or large that can affect your numbers and look at the WHOLE picture.  Just looking at numbers only or parts of them, I would say I was an idiot, played 82os from the bb and lost a lot of money playing stupid.  But looking at all the info, I see I didn’t put any money into it other than the forced blinds and lost.  In seat 6 for example, I can scan down to 82os, see that I had it 5 times in that position and zeros’ all across never playing it.  A quick scan of seat 8, 7 and 4 confirms this.  Never played 82o so I’m ok, I’m not an idiot. WHEW!

All of this so far deals with the starting hands.  The last tab deals with full hand analysis which is great!  You can see how EACH type of hand you played and HOW you played it on the flop affects your winnings. From Gut Shot, through bottom pair, nothing but wind (bluff), pairs, kickers, boats and more, you can see what happens if you check/fold, check/call, check/raise or str8 out bet it.  I was surprised to read my “nothing but wind” column!  It just says “nothing”, I added “but wind” for flavor J

I never check call and obviously have a big loss there for the 70% of the time I check/fold.  It appears I check raised once with a tiny loss of T$360.  But 28% of the time I bet with nothing and have collected T$2,115 winnings for it.  Most likely these are checked around and I take a stab at it with a min bet or it’s HU and taking a shot at it.

In MOST of the scenarios, being aggressive and betting the pot wins more money than checks, check calls, etc…  Of course there are cases where check calls and check raises gained more in chips than ordinarily would be had if I just bet out.  But overall, betting my hand yielded the highest T$ wins than the others.

Bottom and middle pair are losers pretty much across the board long term averages as shown in my charts here.  But it’s surprising to know that betting on total wind from position wins more than actually hitting a small part of the flop!

Want to watch a replay of a tournament hand or game?  On the tournament tab, select the tournament and click on the replay icon.  It will load and replay the whole game with pause, ff, rw, etc… as if you recorded it during the game.  Except it is the PokerOffice game table and cards along with their display as opposed to the game site software.  But HEY!  It sure beats sifting through a ton of text lines and this makes it easy as it graphically points out blunders and successes.  It also shows your opponents hole cards and how they played against them as well as what THEY did.  If you find you play certain players repeatedly this info is stored in your database and if you see they play a certain hand, a certain way from a certain position you will know what to do when the time comes.  With PO2, it’s very easy to see all the hands they play from what positions.  If you see something in the replay that stands out, you can go and check that player in your database and see if he did the same things often when he held the same hand.

I haven’t quite figured out the performance tab tracking my winnings.  It is not listing any finish positions for myself so it shows nothing as to winnings performance in the various game levels.  However, I have the same issue in the other tracking software so it may have something to do with the hand history summary from Full Tilt missing something on my final finish placement.  I’ll have to read up more about this.  But really, I track my br and results already and know where I stand.  I’m looking for this software to help me find weaknesses and strengths in my game plus that of opponents if I run into them repeatedly.  That is the real strength of this program.  I want it for in depth analysis and statistics.  I’m not really looking to use it for play during a game.  Unfortunately, the Live tracker and table overlay for in game use doesn’t work with my XP pro64.  It was written for the standard Windows operating systems that run on the 32 bit platform.  Which is fine for probably 99% of the players out there running a normal computer.

The benefit of Live tracker is it pulls your hand history automatically during the game and adds it to the database.  It also puts your stats and those of your opponents on the table overlay and updates it as you play.  Like I mentioned, I have other programs I use for this and am very happy with.  But it’s a nice feature built into the program to use it if you wished.  Importing the hand history when I’m done with a session is remarkably simple, just point and click.  Takes a minute or two and it’s done.  So I don’t miss the use of live tracker at all and still gain all the benefits this program offers for analyzing my game.

If you would like to chat more about this deep math, self analysis poker, Johnny Tropic contributes regularly to the forum at www.TournamentIndicatorForum.com where you can find him moderating as JP



Poker Calculator Report: Self Analysis Software

More and more online poker players of the amateur status are really getting into using self analysis tools to take a deeper look into their game and identify potential flaws in their overall strategy. To go deeper into their game, players may turn perennial losing “game” situations they have struggled with into break even or even profitable scenarios.

poker office

Flaws in your game are often referred to as “leaks” in poker, because you are essentially spilling money on to the table and in to someone else’s bankroll. This can be a huge factor on a player’s bankroll progression and has been the downfall of the majority of poker players online.

With the growing choice of self-analysis software, some players are taking time away from the game and pouring through their own hand history data to uncover leaks and attack the problem head-on. A player using self-analysis software may not even know what he is looking for, but may after a single session of hand history study may find in his game a golden nugget.

Self analysis software or SAS has long been the studious players’ backdrop to sound strategy and growth, but what exactly can SAS tell you of any value? Well do you think it would be valuable to know you have lost $3,150 playing KQos from early position this year alone? Do you think it would valuable if you knew your win rate at $5/$10 limit hold’em on Stars tables was 3 times more profitable per hour than your $1/$2 No Limit game at Full Tilt? And do you think it would help you to know that against player with a high VPIP and high aggression factor that you lose on average, 1 ½ big blinds per hour?

Of course all these would be interesting facts and programs like Poker Tracker, Poker Office, Poker Sharpener and Poker Prospector are the type of SAS programs you need to be spending more quality time with, especially if you play the cash and ring games as your dominant online game. The reason for that is because they can be measured more accurately with consistent blinds and game structures.

It all comes down to how dedicated you are to improving and how you want to respect and grow your bankroll. If your bankroll could be bigger than it is now, or if it is trending down, than a self-analysis session is surely required. Don’t let your judgment, ego, or for heaven’s sake, anger stand in the way of you becoming a better player.